How the NBA can gear up for 2036
I’m a massive NBA fan and am bullish on the value of live sports within the media landscape moving forward. Over the summer the league was able to secure a new national TV deal with ESPN/ABC, NBC, and Amazon worth $76 billion over 11 years, even as ratings continue to fluctuate. The deal begins next year and runs through the 2035-36 season.
TV deals are a majority contributor to the NBA’s bottomline. Excluding local deals, the national deal alone will likely account for 50-60% of league revenue. The market will look entirely different in ten years, but I think we can safely assume streaming will be the dominant way fans watch games.
In order to set itself up for the best possible deal in a decade, the NBA needs to iterate on its current TV product to better serve streaming. There’s been a lot of talk about star players resting in the regular season, the lack of rivalries in today’s NBA, the regular season being too long, and more factors that have led to a decline in viewership.
But as someone who enjoys watching NBA games, I think it starts with scheduling.
Look at today’s schedule, for example. It’s a Friday night in January where the NBA is the biggest league playing games today. Yet there’s only three on the docket:
- Blazers-Hornets (two bottom feeders)
- Cavs-Sixers (Mobley and Embiid both out with injuries)
- Pelicans-Grizzlies on NBA TV (would’ve been enticing if the Pelicans were healthy this year)
Injuries have a big impact on why this docket is not great. But I’m befuddled as to why there’s only three games on the schedule and none of them are being shown on national TV? Tonight is a wasted opportunity.
Tipoff times are another lever to pull. Games could be better dispersed throughout the week, perhaps even throughout the day, to encourage fans to tune in whenever they want. According to Perplexity, the NBA is vastly more popular than the NFL globally. Scheduling games to accommodate international timezones fits perfectly with where streaming will be in a decade. Whenever an NBA fan wants to watch a live game, they should be able to (within reason—players can’t be playing 24x7).
There are things that can be tweaked on-court, too. I’ll be paying close attention to Unrivaled’s product after it launched earlier this month. Its unique setup: all games in an intimate venue in Miami, designed to deliver the best TV watching experience, could help inform the NBA’s strategy.
Augmented Reality will also be a big part of the story by 2036, though I’m not yet sure how the league should adapt.
I’d love to see the NBA evolve and land an even bigger deal when the time comes. Here’s to hoping the league is willing to make more drastic changes besides introducing an in-season tournament most folks don’t pay attention to.
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